Thursday, October 28, 2004

Latest Polls--Things Are Not Looking Good

Latest Battleground State Polls


Oct. 28, 2004
L.A. Times (likely voters)

Florida

Bush - 51%
Kerry - 43%
Nader - 2%

Ohio

Kerry - 50%
Bush - 44%



Pennsylvania

Bush - 49%
Kerry - 47%


Michigan

17 electoral votes (Gore won in 2000 by 5.2 percentage points)
Mitchell Research & Communications for the Detroit News, Oct. 21, 25-26, 601 likely voters, margin of error +/-4 (results from Oct. 18-20 Mitchell poll in parentheses)
Kerry-Edwards, 47 percent (43)
Bush-Cheney, 42 percent (46)
Nader-Camejo, 1 percent, (1)
Unsure, 10 percent (10)



Minnesota

10 electoral votes, (Gore won in 2000 by 2.4 percentage points)
University of Minnesota's Humphrey Institute, Oct. 21-26, 690 LV, MoE +/-4
Bush-Cheney, 47 percent
Kerry-Edwards, 44 percent
Nader-Camejo, 5 percent
Unsure, 4 percent


St. Cloud State University, Oct. 17-26, 673 LV, MoE +/-4
Kerry-Edwards, 49 percent
Bush-Cheney, 42 percent
Nader-Camejo, 2 percent
Unsure, 7 percent



Pennsylvania

Quinnipiac, Oct. 22-26, 909 LV, MoE +/-4
(Results from mid-October poll in parentheses)
Bush-Cheney, 49 percent (46)
Kerry-Edwards, 47 percent (51)
Unsure, 4 percent (5)





Zogby: Kerry Increasing


Kerry in front in 5 states (CO, MN, OH, PA, WI);

Bush drops to lead in only 3 states (FL, NM, NV);

Tied in Michigan (47%-47%), Iowa (45%-45%)
President Bush now trails Sen. Kerry in Ohio, a state critical to Republican ambitions, according to the latest Reuters/Zogby 10-state battleground poll.

Reliably Democrat Michigan is also now in play, with the candidates tied at 47% apiece. The telephone polls of approximately 600 likely voters per state were conducted from Sunday through Wednesday (October 24-27, 2004). The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points.

The fight for the Oval Office comes down to:


Colorado

Bush 46%
Kerry 50%


Florida

Bush 48%
Kerry 46%


Iowa


Bush 45%
Kerry 45%



Michigan

Bush 47%
Kerry 47%



Minnesota

Bush 44%
Kerry 47%


New Mexico


Bush 47%
Kerry 44%


Nevada


Bush 51%
Kerry 44%


Ohio

Bush 45%
Kerry 46%


Pennsylvania

Bush 46%
Kerry 49%


Wisconsin


Bush 46%
Kerry 50%





Oct. 27, 2004

Bush Catches Kerry in New Jersey

Al Gore won the state in 2000 by 15.8 percentage points. But now:

Quinnipiac, Oct. 21-25,852 LV, MoE +/-3.5

(Results from Quinnipiac poll a week ago in parentheses)

Bush-Cheney, 46 percent (45)

Kerry-Edwards, 46 percent (49)

Nader-Camejo, 2 percent (1)

Unsure, 6 percent (4)




Zogby Battleground

--Kerry Ahead in 5 States (CO, MN, PA, MI, WI)

--Bush Still Leads in 4 States (FL, NM, NV, OH)

--Tied in Iowa (45% Each)


Iowa and Wisconsin have moved out of President Bush’s column, with Senator Kerry picking up the latter, in the latest Reuters/Zogby ten-state battleground poll.

Colorado

Bush 47%

Kerry 49%


Florida

Bush 49%

Kerry 45%


Iowa


Bush 45%

Kerry 45%


Michigan

Bush 44%

Kerry 49%


Minnesota

Bush 44%

Kerry 46%


New Mexico


Bush 48%

Kerry 43%


Nevada


Bush 49%

Kerry 46%


Ohio

Bush 46%

Kerry 44%


Pennsylvania

Bush 45%


Kerry 49%


Wisconsin


Bush 46%

Kerry 48%


Oct. 26, 2004

USA Today/CNN/Gallup:

Florida

Bush - 52%
Kerry - 43%

Ohio

Bush - 48%
Kerry - 49%

Pennsylvania

Bush - 46%
Kerry - 51%

Iowa

Bush - 49%
Kerry - 43%

Colorado

Bush - 51%
Kerry - 45%

Michigan

Bush - 43%
Kerry - 49%

Minnesota

Bush - 47%
Kerry - 45%

New Mexico

Bush - 46%
Kerry - 48%

Nevada

Bush - 49%
Kerry - 47%

Wisconsin

Bush - 50%
Kerry - 44%



Zogby


Colorado

Bush 47%
Kerry 48%

Florida

Bush 48%
Kerry 47%

Iowa

Bush 47%
Kerry 44%

Michigan

Bush 43%
Kerry 52%

Minnesota

Bush 43%
Kerry 48%

New Mexico

Bush 50%
Kerry 42%

Nevada

Bush 40%
Kerry 44%

Ohio

Bush 46%
Kerry 45%

Pennsylvania

Bush 45%
Kerry 48%

Wisconsin

Bush 48%
Kerry 46%


Hawaii becomes a battleground state


Oct. 25th, 2004

Nevada:

(Reno Gazette-Journal and KRNV-TV)

Bush - 49%
Kerry - 47%

(Las Vegas Sun, KLAS-TV and KNPR)

Bush - 45%
Kerry's 41%


Oct. 24, 2004

Zogby Battleground Polls

Colorado

Bush 45%
Kerry 49%

Florida

Bush 49%
Kerry 46%

Iowa

Bush 47%
Kerry 45%

Michigan

Bush 42%
Kerry 52%

Minnesota

Bush 45%
Kerry46%

New Mexico

Bush 49%
Kerry 44%

Nevada

Bush 48%
Kerry 44%

Ohio

Bush 47%
Kerry 42%

Pennsylvania

Bush 45%
Kerry 47%

Wisconsin

Bush 48%
Kerry 45%



Ohio: Kerry Takes Lead

Ohio University's Scripps Survey Research Center Poll found:

Bush 43%

Kerry 49%

Other 1%

Undecided 3%



Florida: Dead Heat

The latest St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald poll shows:

Bush 46%

Kerry 46%

Nader 1%

Undecided 7%


Oct. 22, 2004




Story Continues Below




Ohio: Kerry Gaining



Kerry 48

Bush 47

Nader 1


Fla.: Kerry Closes Lead

Democratic challenger John Kerry has nearly closed a seven-point gap among Florida likely voters and now trails President George W. Bush, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.


Bush 48

Kerry 47

Nader 1


Iowa: Bush Takes Big Lead

A Survey USA Poll finds:


Bush 51

Kerry 46


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