Friday, October 15, 2004

Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 228 Bush 284

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Wyoming (3 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 29%
Bush: 65%
Nader: 2%
Source: American Res. Group-3 (Sep 11)
2000: Gore: 28.3%, Bush 69.2%, Nader 2.0%


Wisconsin (10 EVs)
Weak Bush
Kerry: 44%
Bush: 49%
Nader: 2%
Source: Strategic Vision (R)-3 (Oct 11)
2000: Gore: 47.8%, Bush 47.6%, Nader 3.6%


West Virginia (5 EVs)
Weak Bush
Kerry: 44%
Bush: 50%
Nader: 1%
Source: Zogby-6 (Oct 5)
2000: Gore: 45.6%, Bush 51.9%, Nader 1.6%


Washington (11 EVs)
Weak Kerry
Kerry: 49%
Bush: 44%
Nader: 2%
Source: Strategic Vision (R)-3 (Oct 6)
2000: Gore: 50.2%, Bush 44.6%, Nader 4.1%


Virginia (13 EVs)
Barely Bush
Kerry: 47%
Bush: 50%
Nader: 0%
Source: Zogby-7 (Oct 6)
2000: Gore: 44.5%, Bush 52.5%, Nader 2.2%


Vermont (3 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 53%
Bush: 40%
Nader: 3%
Source: Rsearch-3 (Oct 12)
2000: Gore: 50.7%, Bush 40.8%, Nader 6.9%


Vermont (3 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 53%
Bush: 40%
Nader: 3%
Source: Rsearch-3 (Oct 12)
2000: Gore: 50.7%, Bush 40.8%, Nader 6.9%


Utah (5 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 27%
Bush: 64%
Nader: 4%
Source: American Res. Group-4 (Sep 13)
2000: Gore: 26.5%, Bush 67.2%, Nader 4.7%


Texas (34 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 37%
Bush: 60%
Nader: 0%
Source: Survey USA-3 (Oct 11)
2000: Gore: 38.0%, Bush 59.3%, Nader 2.2%


Tennessee (11 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 39%
Bush: 58%
Nader: 0%
Source: Survey USA-3 (Oct 5)
2000: Gore: 47.3%, Bush 51.2%, Nader 1.0%


South Dakota (3 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 42%
Bush: 52%
Nader: 0%
Source: Rasmussen-1 (Oct 12)
2000: Gore: 37.6%, Bush 60.3%, Nader 0.0%


South Carolina (8 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 42%
Bush: 55%
Nader: 0%
Source: Survey USA-3 (Oct 12)
2000: Gore: 40.9%, Bush 56.9%, Nader 1.5%


Rhode Island (4 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 56%
Bush: 36%
Nader: 0%
Source: Survey USA-3 (Oct 11)
2000: Gore: 61.0%, Bush 31.9%, Nader 6.1%


Rhode Island (4 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 56%
Bush: 36%
Nader: 0%
Source: Survey USA-3 (Oct 11)
2000: Gore: 61.0%, Bush 31.9%, Nader 6.1%


Pennsylvania (21 EVs)
Barely Kerry
Kerry: 46%
Bush: 45%
Nader: 2%
Source: Strategic Vision (R)-3/Quinnipiac Univ.-3 (Oct 11)
2000: Gore: 50.6%, Bush 46.4%, Nader 2.1%


Oregon (7 EVs)
Weak Kerry
Kerry: 49%
Bush: 44%
Nader: 2%
Source: American Res. Group-4 (Oct 12)
2000: Gore: 47.1%, Bush 46.6%, Nader 5.1%


Oklahoma (7 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 38%
Bush: 50%
Nader: 0%
Source: Wilson Research (R)-3 (Oct 10)
2000: Gore: 38.4%, Bush 60.3%, Nader 0.0%


Ohio (20 EVs)
Weak Bush
Kerry: 43%
Bush: 51%
Nader: 1%
Source: Strategic Vision (R)-3 (Oct 11)
2000: Gore: 46.4%, Bush 50.0%, Nader 2.5%


North Dakota (3 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 33%
Bush: 62%
Nader: 1%
Source: American Res. Group-4 (Sep 10)
2000: Gore: 33.1%, Bush 60.7%, Nader 3.3%


North Carolina (15 EVs)
Weak Bush
Kerry: 45%
Bush: 52%
Nader: 0%
Source: Survey USA-3 (Oct 4)
2000: Gore: 43.1%, Bush 56.0%, Nader 0.0%


New York (31 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 58%
Bush: 35%
Nader: 0%
Source: Survey USA-3 (Oct 11)
2000: Gore: 60.2%, Bush 35.2%, Nader 3.6%


New Mexico (5 EVs)
Barely Bush
Kerry: 46%
Bush: 47%
Nader: 3%
Source: Gallup-4 (Oct 6)
2000: Gore: 47.9%, Bush 47.8%, Nader 3.6%


New Jersey (15 EVs)
Tied
Kerry: 44%
Bush: 44%
Nader: 3%
Source: Strategic Vision (R)-3 (Oct 11)
2000: Gore: 56.1%, Bush 40.3%, Nader 3.0%


New Jersey (15 EVs)
Tied
Kerry: 44%
Bush: 44%
Nader: 3%
Source: Strategic Vision (R)-3 (Oct 11)
2000: Gore: 56.1%, Bush 40.3%, Nader 3.0%


New Hampshire (4 EVs)
Tied
Kerry: 47%
Bush: 47%
Nader: 1%
Source: American Research Group-3/American Res. Group-3 (Oct 5)
2000: Gore: 46.9%, Bush 48.2%, Nader 3.9%


New Hampshire (4 EVs)
Tied
Kerry: 47%
Bush: 47%
Nader: 1%
Source: American Research Group-3/American Res. Group-3 (Oct 5)
2000: Gore: 46.9%, Bush 48.2%, Nader 3.9%


Nevada (5 EVs)
Barely Kerry
Kerry: 48%
Bush: 47%
Nader: 1%
Source: Zogby-6 (Oct 5)
2000: Gore: 46.2%, Bush 49.8%, Nader 2.5%


Nebraska (5 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 30%
Bush: 61%
Nader: 2%
Source: American Res. Group-4 (Sep 12)
2000: Gore: 33.2%, Bush 62.2%, Nader 3.5%


Montana (3 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 36%
Bush: 54%
Nader: 2%
Source: Mason-Dixon-3 (Sep 22)
2000: Gore: 33.4%, Bush 58.4%, Nader 5.9%


Missouri (11 EVs)
Barely Bush
Kerry: 47%
Bush: 49%
Nader: 0%
Source: Survey USA-3 (Oct 4)
2000: Gore: 47.1%, Bush 50.4%, Nader 1.6%


Mississippi (6 EVs)
Weak Bush
Kerry: 42%
Bush: 51%
Nader: 1%
Source: American Res. Group-4 (Sep 17)
2000: Gore: 40.7%, Bush 57.6%, Nader 0.8%


Minnesota (10 EVs)
Weak Kerry
Kerry: 48%
Bush: 43%
Nader: 2%
Source: Star Tribune-3 (Oct 11)
2000: Gore: 47.9%, Bush 45.5%, Nader 5.2%


Michigan (17 EVs)
Barely Kerry
Kerry: 49%
Bush: 46%
Nader: 0%
Source: Rasmussen-7 (Oct 11)
2000: Gore: 51.3%, Bush 46.1%, Nader 2.0%


Massachusetts (12 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 50%
Bush: 36%
Nader: 2%
Source: Merrimack Coll.-11 (Oct 5)
2000: Gore: 59.9%, Bush 32.5%, Nader 6.4%


Massachusetts (12 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 50%
Bush: 36%
Nader: 2%
Source: Merrimack Coll.-11 (Oct 5)
2000: Gore: 59.9%, Bush 32.5%, Nader 6.4%


Maryland (10 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 56%
Bush: 41%
Nader: 0%
Source: Survey USA-3 (Oct 7)
2000: Gore: 56.6%, Bush 40.2%, Nader 2.7%


Maryland (10 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 56%
Bush: 41%
Nader: 0%
Source: Survey USA-3 (Oct 7)
2000: Gore: 56.6%, Bush 40.2%, Nader 2.7%


Maine (4 EVs)
Barely Kerry
Kerry: 49%
Bush: 47%
Nader: 0%
Source: Survey USA-3 (Oct 5)
2000: Gore: 49.1%, Bush 44.0%, Nader 5.7%


Louisiana (9 EVs)
Weak Bush
Kerry: 44%
Bush: 52%
Nader: 0%
Source: Rasmussen-1 (Oct 6)
2000: Gore: 44.9%, Bush 52.6%, Nader 0.8%


Kentucky (8 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 38%
Bush: 57%
Nader: 0%
Source: Survey USA-3 (Oct 6)
2000: Gore: 41.3%, Bush 56.4%, Nader 1.5%


Kansas (6 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 38%
Bush: 57%
Nader: 0%
Source: Survey USA-3 (Oct 11)
2000: Gore: 37.2%, Bush 58.0%, Nader 3.4%


Iowa (7 EVs)
Tied
Kerry: 47%
Bush: 47%
Nader: 2%
Source: American Res. Group-3 (Oct 12)
2000: Gore: 48.6%, Bush 48.3%, Nader 2.2%


Indiana (11 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 39%
Bush: 58%
Nader: 0%
Source: Survey USA-3 (Oct 5)
2000: Gore: 41.0%, Bush 56.6%, Nader 0.8%


Illinois (21 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 55%
Bush: 39%
Nader: 0%
Source: Survey USA-3 (Oct 6)
2000: Gore: 54.6%, Bush 42.6%, Nader 2.2%


Idaho (4 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 30%
Bush: 59%
Nader: 3%
Source: American Res. Group-3 (Sep 10)
2000: Gore: 27.6%, Bush 67.2%, Nader 2.5%


Hawaii (4 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 51%
Bush: 41%
Nader: 4%
Source: American Res. Group-5 (Sep 11)
2000: Gore: 55.8%, Bush 37.5%, Nader 5.9%


Georgia (15 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 39%
Bush: 58%
Nader: 0%
Source: Survey USA-3 (Oct 7)
2000: Gore: 43.2%, Bush 55.0%, Nader 0.0%


Florida (27 EVs)
Barely Bush
Kerry: 45%
Bush: 48%
Nader: 0%
Source: Rasmussen-7 (Oct 11)
2000: Gore: 48.8%, Bush 48.8%, Nader 1.6%


D.C. (3 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 78%
Bush: 11%
Nader: 6%
Source: American Res. Group-3 (Sep 13)
2000: Gore: 85.7%, Bush 9.0%, Nader 5.3%


D.C. (3 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 78%
Bush: 11%
Nader: 6%
Source: American Res. Group-3 (Sep 13)
2000: Gore: 85.7%, Bush 9.0%, Nader 5.3%


Delaware (3 EVs)
Weak Kerry
Kerry: 45%
Bush: 38%
Nader: 1%
Source: West Chester Univ.-4 (Sep 25)
2000: Gore: 55.0%, Bush 41.9%, Nader 2.5%


Delaware (3 EVs)
Weak Kerry
Kerry: 45%
Bush: 38%
Nader: 1%
Source: West Chester Univ.-4 (Sep 25)
2000: Gore: 55.0%, Bush 41.9%, Nader 2.5%


Connecticut (7 EVs)
Weak Kerry
Kerry: 47%
Bush: 38%
Nader: 4%
Source: Quinnipiac Univ.-3 (Sep 28)
2000: Gore: 55.9%, Bush 38.4%, Nader 4.4%


Connecticut (7 EVs)
Weak Kerry
Kerry: 47%
Bush: 38%
Nader: 4%
Source: Quinnipiac Univ.-3 (Sep 28)
2000: Gore: 55.9%, Bush 38.4%, Nader 4.4%


Colorado (9 EVs)
Weak Bush
Kerry: 44%
Bush: 52%
Nader: 0%
Source: Survey USA-3 (Oct 7)
2000: Gore: 42.4%, Bush 50.8%, Nader 5.3%


California (55 EVs)
Weak Kerry
Kerry: 51%
Bush: 43%
Nader: 0%
Source: Rasmussen-7 (Oct 11)
2000: Gore: 53.4%, Bush 41.7%, Nader 3.8%


Arkansas (6 EVs)
Weak Bush
Kerry: 43%
Bush: 52%
Nader: 1%
Source: Opinion Research-3 (Oct 6)
2000: Gore: 45.9%, Bush 51.3%, Nader 1.5%


Arizona (10 EVs)
Weak Bush
Kerry: 44%
Bush: 49%
Nader: 0%
Source: Northern Arizona Univ.-4 (Oct 11)
2000: Gore: 44.7%, Bush 51.0%, Nader 3.0%


Alaska (3 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 30%
Bush: 57%
Nader: 5%
Source: American Res. Group-3 (Sep 11)
2000: Gore: 27.8%, Bush 58.8%, Nader 10.1%


Alabama (9 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 34%
Bush: 62%
Nader: 0%
Source: Survey USA-3 (Oct 3)
2000: Gore: 41.6%, Bush 56.5%, Nader 1.1%


Data in Excel format
Battleground states
Polling data Key
Previous report
News



Strong Kerry (88)
Weak Kerry (93)
Barely Kerry (47)
Exactly tied (26)
Barely Bush (56)
Weak Bush (90)
Strong Bush (138)
Needed to win: 270

Oct. 14 New polls: CA FL IA MI OR SC SD VT

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